XRP Breaks August Bearish Trend: Can Ripple Push Past $3.64 Resistance?

August has been a tough month historically for XRP, often bringing selling pressure and price dips. But 2025 is shaping up to be different. XRP is breaking away from this seasonal weakness with fresh momentum, pinned on tricky technical resistance at $3.64, a level that could unlock a bullish breakout if overcome. 

Why August Has Been Rough for XRP and Why This Year Feels Different

If you've watched XRP aud over the past few years, August has often been the month when the price stumbled, losing around 10-27% in some years. That’s a lot of pain for holders! But early August 2025 surprised many by holding firm above the key $3 support level and even rallying sharply after Ripple’s legal progress in pushing the SEC appeals dismissal. This legal clarity acted like rocket fuel, propelling XRP about 13% higher to near $3.36 in just days.

What’s unique this August? It looks like the stubborn $3 floor has flipped from resistance to support, setting the stage for XRP aud to challenge the next big hurdle at $3.64. This shift signals a possible end to the usual August sell-off and maybe even the start of something much bigger.

Understanding the $3.64 Resistance

Resistance levels are like gatekeepers in trading. The $3.64 mark has historically been a sweet spot where sellers step back in to take profits or short positions, putting a ceiling on XRP’s price. Breaking this barrier with conviction would clear the deck for fresh buying waves.

  • Immediate Support: The zone between $3.00 and $3.10 is now a crucial safety net, reinforced by the popular 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and past price bottoms. XRP’s ability to stay above this range will be vital to keep bullish flames alive.

  • Next Resistance Band: The stretch from $3.30 to $3.64 is the battleground. A decisive breakout here, especially with strong trading volume, would tell us that the bears might be on their way out.

Signals from the Technical Trenches: Why the Bulls Are Gaining Ground

XRP’s charts are flashing some enticing signs that the bulls are not just lurking but ready to charge:

  • Bull Flag Setup: This classic chart pattern shows XRP paused briefly after a strong rally (flagpole), forming a sideways “flag.” Such flags often precede the next leg up. XRP’s recent price action fits this mold perfectly, suggesting the next spike could be just around the corner.

  • Volume Confirmation: Trading volumes ramped above 300 million XRP during recent surges, indicating strong hands, possibly institutions, are stepping in and buying aggressively.

  • Momentum Indicators:

    • The Average Directional Index (ADX) is climbing, proving the trend is gaining real muscle.

    • The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering near 69, shows buying energy is solid but not yet exhausted, leaving room to keep pushing higher.

  • Open Interest Explosion: Futures and options open interest have blasted over $10 billion. This rising bet size hints that traders are getting more confident that XRP can continue its climb.

What Could Happen if XRP Smashes Through $3.64?

Price targets are where the excitement really builds. Based on technical patterns, historical precedents, and Fibonacci extension levels, here’s the roadmap if XRP clears this resistance.

  • Short-Term Targets: A push to $4.35 - $5.50 is a realistic next step. These levels represent previous holding points for sellers and technical resistance zones.

  • Medium-Term Ambitions: The bull flag pattern and XRP’s ascending channel suggest possible moves up to $8 to $15 levels that would signify a powerful rally and mark multi-bagger gains over current prices.

  • Longer-Term Moonshots: If the broader crypto sentiment stays super bullish, Ripple’s adoption accelerates massively, and big institutional players keep flooding the market, prices above $20 are plausible, though those are high-risk, high-reward scenarios.

Stay Alert: Risks That Could Shake This Rally

No rally is without its hurdles. Here’s what to watch out for:

  • Key Support Breach: If XRP falls below the $2.60 to $3.00 zone, especially losing the 50-day EMA, it could break the bullish story and open the door for a deeper pullback.

  • False Breakouts: If XRP tries to move past $3.64 without enough volume support, the breakout could fail, trapping buyers and causing a swift retreat.

  • External Shocks: Regulatory news, especially any fresh developments in Ripple’s ongoing legal saga, or a sudden crypto market sell-off can derail technical setups instantly.

Final Thoughts: XRP’s August Story Is Just Heating Up

XRP breaking free from its heavy August bearish history and holding above $3 shows a fundamental shift in market dynamics. If the crypto bulls rally through $3.64 with strength, we could see XRP kicking into gear toward significant new highs.

For traders and investors, this means watching the $3.00 support and $3.64 resistance is crucial. Volume confirmation and ongoing legal and institutional updates will add layers of insight to XRP’s next move.

This moment is more than just a price battle; it captures a turning tide, XRP stepping out of a shadow of seasonality and legal uncertainty into a potential rise powered by momentum, market confidence, and renewed adoption. Keep your eyes peeled. XRP’s August breakout attempt could be one of this year’s most exciting crypto plays.

Alison Morgan